This last week, watching Bitcoin face Aug 1, 2017 and then fork into $BCC was a really nutty event. This is not so much because of the actual coins splitting, but more the FUD and hype around it, as well as confusion. I am a Crypto nerd and follow many of the thought leaders, engineers, whale investors, founders of Crypto ecosystem startups and average everyday investors. I have invested in several startups in the space and have many friends who are balls deep in it. Just like all of you, I have a vested interest in the fall out of something like this and did my research. If you were like me, you quickly realized there were a lot of varying opinions on what would happen. The market tanked. A ton of money was quickly removed from the market, where as some investors decided to weather the storm. Meanwhile, the engineers from varying points of view and perspectives argued over every minutia point… And posted dissertations and Twitter rants backing up their points. The whale investors also bickered back and forth. Meanwhile, the rest of us sat back and braced for the storm.
July 31, 2017 11:58 hits and I am glued to my computer. Tick Tock, Tick Tock, midnight and we enter into Aug 1st. Nothing significant really happened in the physical sense, but $BTC forked and $BCC or $BCH (whatever you want to call it) was formed. That morning I was watching @worldcryptonetwork with @jimmysong and @ToneVays as they live streamed a play by play of the technical side of the first blocks being mined and educated us all on what was actually happening. 3500 people were watching history in the making. The tech talk and chatter was on full tilt, and I ate up every bit of it
As the day started to progress, $BCC started trading and people were going nuts. The two camps of $BTC lovers versus $BCC lovers were clashing on social media and in blogs. People were getting downright nasty to each other. Meanwhile, the Altcoin market was ripe for the picking and many savvy investors scooped up a bunch of them at great prices. After a few days the dust started to settle and as you all know $BCC has declined and $BTC has sky rocketed. This created days of frenzy buying. The Saturday before Aug 1, 2017 the market cap was around $88 billion. It has risen to over $120 billion in a week. You do the math.
During this crazy week, I saw chart wizards with very detailed and pretty graphs making bullish and bearish cases for $BCC and $BTC. I saw haters hating on the people who supported $BCC and laughed at them as it started to drop. I continued to read and listen to many podcasts from reliable sources trying to piece together fact from fiction. As I was taking my dog for a walk to get away from the madness, it hit me. Everyone is a Crypto expert in their own minds. Some are legitimate experts. Others are soap box self-professed experts on YouTube. The fact is NO ONE really knew what the fuck would happen on Aug 1st. No one can accurately predict where $BTC will end up long-term. I saw experts and HUGE whales be totally wrong. I also saw YouTube self-professed experts, who have little experience in this game, guess right. The funny part was, the people who were right, pounded their chests and their egos only inflated “See I was right…”
So here we sit a week later. $BTC hit an all-time high. $BCC is beaten down, but still alive. I still continue to read and research as much as I can find on the topic. From a technical stand point, I get both sides of the argument. It is far too soon to really have any opinion on this subject. When you break it down, does it really even matter who is right today. This market is fluid and we won’t know until we are further down the road.
Take a step back and rise above the maze and look down at the Bitcoin and Crypto market, community, engineers, VC’s, big banks and the amount of money invested into the space. The growth and interest into this game since 2013 is incredible. Whether you are here to make money, or you really love the technology itself or both, no one can deny that in 5 years we will see exponential growth. We will see Coins boom. We will see power house Coins fail. We will see bugs and forks and scams. This is the nature of the evolution of any industry. The fact is when all of us woke up on Aug 1, 2017, nothing really changed. That can be debated, and I am sure the engineers will, but I mean the space itself and tech has not changed. At the granular level it has. At the macro level all I see is nothing but progression. We still have a long way to go.
With that said, I just want to point out that NO ONE is a fucking expert. Some people know more about the technology and history, while others have been in the game since the early days through dumb luck. Everyone has a voice. Everyone has an opinion. I respect everyone’s perspective, but like I said, NO ONE can accurately predict the future. If you go on social media or slack, there are some engineers who are deep in the code chatter. These same people put down people and hate on others who have contrasting opinions. Their big words and keyboard warrior snarky remarks are convincing in the moment. Many of these same talking heads were WRONG about their predictions and some were right. The one’s that were wrong fell silent. Crickets! The ones who guessed right, their egos only inflated more. If you really think about it, the real people who were right on all of this, are the people who actually made money or made investment moves that benefited their bottom line. I don’t care if you are a whale, noob, engineer, founder in the game or just a regular Joe who loves Crypto. Who is to say who is right? Who is to say who is wrong? As the late great Easy E said, “…It’s all about making that GTA.” If you do not get the slang. It’s about you meeting your goals in this game.
The one take away from this experience is that it confirmed to me to only invest in what you believe in. Do not let anyone sway your gut feelings. You will know what is right for you. I panic sold some of my portfolio a few weeks ago. Something got into my head, and I decided to play it safe. I was lucky enough to be able to buy it all back at a cheaper price. Had I just done nothing and waited it all out, I would have came out better. I personally am investing long-term in the space. I believe this technology is going to help the world. It already is in many ways, but the best years are yet to come. I might buy and sell some Coins along the way to navigate whatever happens in the market, but I can make one accurate prediction for certain. In 5-10-20 years, the landscape will change and only for the good. We will be further along in the evolution and adoption rate of $BTC, or whatever Coin wins this race.
We are just before the early adopters phase (This is just my opinion).
I will leave you with this last little nugget to think about that I heard in a podcast earlier this week. On @theonevortex “Bitcoin News #46” @GabrielDvine brought up the potential impact if 1% of the one percent’s money flowed into Bitcoin, it would raise the price significantly. Take this a step further, if 1% of the people holding gold put 1% of their money into $BTC, it would be exponential. I apologize in advance as I am sure my translation does not do this statement justice. Never the less, think about that for a minute. In the grand scheme of things, history was made when Bitcoin forked. In 10 years, all of this will be a blur and people who held their Bitcoin or whatever it evolves to, will have made a fortune. Maybe they won’t be so salty then.
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